A value pick is simple in spirit: we estimate how likely a team is to win, compare it to what the market is charging, and flag the gap. If our number is meaningfully higher than the market price, the market may be underpricing that team. That gap is the value.
Step 1: We rate every team with Elo
We build an Elo rating for each team from real match results on Leaguepedia. Every team starts at 1500. After each match the winner gains points and the loser drops, and beating a stronger team is worth more than beating a weaker one. We process matches oldest-first so ratings track current form. Today the model covers 412 teams across 1929 matches.
Step 2: We turn ratings into a win probability
The rating gap between two teams maps to a win probability with the standard Elo formula. A 100-point edge is roughly a 64 percent chance to win; 200 points is about 76 percent. This is our model number.
Step 3: We read the market price as a probability
On Polymarket, a team trading at 0.60 is the market saying it has a 60 percent chance to win. We pull those live prices and line them up against our model for the same match.
Step 4: We flag the gap
If our model is at least 7 points above the market price for a team, we call it value. If it is well below, we steer clear. Inside that band, we call it fair. We always show both numbers so you can judge for yourself.
Step 5: We turn the edge into real numbers
An edge is only useful if you can size it. For every value pick we show two more figures. Expected value per $100 is what a $100 stake is worth on average at the current price, using our model probability. A team trading at 0.48 that our model rates at 0.62 carries an edge of 14 points and an expected value of roughly +$29 per $100, because winning shares pay out at a price below their true odds. Suggested stake is a quarter-Kelly figure, capped, so it stays conservative on a single high-variance match. We also show a confidence label based on how many games of data back the two teams. None of this is a tip to bet; it is the maths laid bare so you can decide.
What this is not
Elo does not know about a roster change, a patch, jet lag, or a team peaking at the right time. It is a baseline, not the final word, and a single match is high variance. Treat our picks as one input, compare the live price yourself, and never stake more than you can afford to lose. Nothing here is financial advice. 18+. Please gamble responsibly, BeGambleAware.org.