Bet candidate+20 edge
Vitality vs MOUZ
62% model43% market
Model edge is live. Check the market rules and stake size before acting.
- Model is 20 points above the market.
- EV is +$47 per $100 if the model is right.
LoL Value Picks
We rate every team with an Elo model built from match history, then compare it to Polymarket's live prices. When the two disagree, that gap is potential value. This is a model, not a guarantee. See how it works and our track record. 18+, not financial advice.
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Every card combines model probability, live market price, bookmaker gaps, market movement, and fan sentiment into one plain decision.
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0sharp moves
0watchlist
0book gaps
Bet candidate+11 edge
Gen.G vs Bilibili Gaming
55% model44% market
Model edge is live. Check the market rules and stake size before acting.
- Model is 11 points above the market.
- EV is +$25 per $100 if the model is right.
Pass+3 edge
Bilibili Gaming vs Gen.G
45% model43% market
No clear edge. Use it as context, not a bet.
- Model edge is 3 points, below the 5 point watch threshold.
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Model edge, live market price, bookmaker coverage, and watchlist spots in one scan.
Value live
+20Top edge
2Value markets
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0Bookmaker matches
Vitality vs MOUZ
Model 62% vs Polymarket 43%. Edge +20 points, EV +$47 per $100 if the model is right.
Confidence: Medium
Open marketFan sentimentNot configured
Fan sentiment unavailable
Live social sentiment is not configured yet.
Social sentiment will appear here once the live X scan returns enough signal.
Vitality vs MOUZValue +20
Our model62%
Polymarket43%
+20Edge
+$47EV / $100
8.7%Stake (¼ Kelly)
mediumConfidence
Our model rates Vitality above the market price. Every $100 staked here is worth about +$47 on average if the model is right. The stake figure is a quarter-Kelly guide, not an instruction.
Trade this market on PolymarketGen.G vs Bilibili GamingValue +11
Our model55%
Polymarket44%
+11Edge
+$25EV / $100
4.9%Stake (¼ Kelly)
lowConfidence
Our model rates Gen.G above the market price. Every $100 staked here is worth about +$25 on average if the model is right. The stake figure is a quarter-Kelly guide, not an instruction.
Trade this market on PolymarketMarket movers
Open value boardWhat changed on the board?
Biggest live Polymarket probability moves since Nov 12, 03:15 PM UTC.
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Value calculator
Have your own read on a match? Plug in the market price, your win estimate, and a stake to see the expected value. Positive EV means the price is in your favour over the long run. More tools on the tools page.
+$8.00Expected value
$50.00Profit if it wins
-$50.00Loss if it loses
Positive expected value: if your estimate is right, this bet pays over the long run. Variance is still high on a single match.
Model: Elo from Leaguepedia match history (1929 matches, 412 rated teams). Prices from the public Polymarket Gamma API, refreshed live. Edges are model views, not promises. Bet only what you can afford to lose.
Esports schedule, standings and results data from Leaguepedia, available under CC BY-SA 3.0. Odds from the public Polymarket Gamma API.