Key takeaways
- Polymarket prices Gen.G at 62.00 and Bilibili Gaming at 38.60 to finish 2026 number one on the Global Power Rankings. The event has traded 257,088 dollars across 31 sub-markets and settles on the final 2026 ranking published after Worlds, with a 15 January 2027 backstop.
- This is not the same question as the trophy, and the price history proves it. On 1 November the ranking board had Gen.G at 66.50 while the Worlds winner board had them at 46.50, a 20-point gap. On 21 October the two boards were 13 points apart on Bilibili Gaming.
- They have now converged to within 1.15 points, and we think that has gone too far. Strip the overround and the ranking board gives Gen.G 60.75 against 62.53 on the 14.2 million dollar winner board, while leaving just 1.42 points for any team not in Saturday's final.
- Bilibili Gaming owns the better 2026 international record, which is what this ranking is built to reward. BLG won First Stand and were MSI runners-up. Gen.G won no international event in 2026 and did not qualify for MSI at all.
- Six markets on the board show 50.00 and none of them is a real price. The contracts labelled A, B, C, D, E and "another team" have never traded a dollar and quote 0 bid against 1 ask.
On this page
- What this market actually settles
- How Riot calculates the Global Power Rankings
- The full board, every traded price
- Four boards, one question, four prices
- The prices after the overround comes out
- This market used to ask a different question
- The 2026 record the ranking is built to reward
- The 23 eliminated teams are priced at dust
- Six markets showing 50 percent that are not real
- How we would read this board
- Related reading
- Frequently asked questions
Two days before the Worlds final, there is a 257,088 dollar Polymarket book on which team ends 2026 ranked number one on Riot's Global Power Rankings, and it is being read as a copy of the final. It is not one. The ranking is an Elo model that runs all season across every tier-one league, so a team can top it without lifting the trophy, and for most of October this market said so out loud: on 1 November it had Gen.G at 66.50 while the trophy board had them at 46.50. We pulled all 31 sub-markets off Polymarket's public Gamma API at 16:12 UTC on 12 November 2026, pulled the 30-day CLOB price history for both boards and aligned them date by date, then stripped the overround out of each before comparing.
The short version: this board spent three weeks pricing a genuinely different question, it has collapsed onto the final in the last six days, and the convergence has gone a point further than the ranking's own rules justify.
If you want the final itself priced market by market, that is in Gen.G vs Bilibili Gaming: Worlds 2026 final odds. The full title board with every eliminated team sits in Worlds 2026 winner odds, and the region market is broken down in Worlds 2026 winning region odds.
What this market actually settles
The contract asks which team occupies the number one position on the official Global Power Rankings once the final 2026 ranking is published after Worlds. That wording matters more than it looks, because it ties the payout to a Riot data product rather than to the Summoner's Cup.
| Field | Detail |
|---|---|
| Question | Team ranked number 1 on the final 2026 Global Power Rankings |
| Resolution source | Official LoL Esports Global Power Rankings |
| Sub-markets | 31 listed, 25 of which have traded |
| Volume traded | 257,088 dollars |
| Resting liquidity | 145,029 dollars |
| Tie-break | First alphabetically among tied teams |
| Backstop | Resolves "Other" if no number 1 is published by 14 January 2027 |
| Market end date | 15 January 2027, 04:59 UTC |
Two clauses are worth holding on to. The tie-break is alphabetical, which in a Gen.G against Bilibili Gaming tie would hand it to Bilibili Gaming. And the backstop means a non-publication outcome pays "Other", not the champion. Both are edge cases, but they are the kind of edge case that only shows up in the rules, never in the price.
How Riot calculates the Global Power Rankings
The Global Power Rankings are an Elo-style model that Riot runs with AWS across all tier-one leagues. The headline number, the Power Score, is a weighted blend: 80 percent the team's own Elo, 20 percent the Elo of the league they play in. Riot has said that split was chosen after testing with regional experts and lands around 65 percent predictive accuracy.
Riot's own rankings page lists what feeds the score, and the ordering is the part that decides this year's race.
| Input | What it measures |
|---|---|
| Team performance | Context of play, with Worlds playoffs weighted above regular season |
| Recent performance | A team's latest matches count for more than older ones |
| In-game execution | Kills, gold and overall game dominance, not just the win |
| Strength of opponent | The power-score gap between the two teams |
| Regional strength score | League Elo, driven by international results |
Read those five together and you get a model that is deliberately not a trophy count. It rewards beating strong opponents convincingly, it rewards your league's international results through the 20 percent league-Elo term, and it updates after every single game of a split or an international event rather than at the end of the year. A team can therefore hold the top score on a body of work that a single best-of-five does not fully overturn, which is exactly the gap the market spent October pricing.
The full board, every traded price
Twenty-five of the 31 sub-markets have traded. Two of them are live questions and 23 are not, and the shape of the book makes that obvious at a glance.
| Team | Price | Best bid | Best ask | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gen.G (GEN) | 62.00 | 0.61 | 0.63 | 63,418 |
| Bilibili Gaming (BLG) | 38.60 | 0.378 | 0.394 | 26,096 |
| LYON | 0.15 | 0.001 | 0.002 | 12,919 |
| Dplus KIA (DK) | 0.15 | 0.001 | 0.002 | 15,403 |
| Invictus Gaming (IG) | 0.15 | 0.001 | 0.002 | 14,233 |
| Hanwha Life (HLE) | 0.05 | none | 0.001 | 16,917 |
| T1 | 0.05 | none | 0.001 | 19,752 |
| 18 others | 0.05 each | none | 0.001 | 286 to 9,428 |
| Whole traded book | 102.05 | 257,088 |
The traded book sums to 102.05, so there is roughly two points of overround to take out before any of these numbers can be compared with another market. Gen.G's quote is two points wide, 0.61 against 0.63, and Bilibili Gaming's is 1.6 points wide. That is tight for a book this size but loose next to the final's own market, and it is where the rest of this article's arithmetic has to be careful.
Four boards, one question, four prices
With two teams left, four separate Polymarket markets are now asking versions of the same thing. Gen.G is the only LCK team alive and Bilibili Gaming the only LPL team, so the winning-region market is a clean proxy. The first-time-winner contract is a Bilibili Gaming proxy too, because its rules count Gen.G as a previous winner through Samsung Galaxy's 2017 title.
| Board | Gen.G / LCK | BLG / LPL | Book sums to | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Worlds 2026 winner | 62.50 | 37.45 | 99.95 | 14,155,533 |
| Winning region | 62.50 | 37.50 | 100.00 | 2,062,866 |
| Global Power Rankings no. 1 | 62.00 | 38.60 | 100.60 | 257,088 |
| First-time winner (BLG proxy) | n/a | 38.50 | n/a | 3,190 |
Bilibili Gaming's price across those four boards runs 37.45, 37.50, 38.50, 38.60. The two deep books agree to within 0.05 of a point. The two thin ones both sit a point or more above them, and the ranking board is the most expensive BLG on the site despite being the one with an actual structural reason to differ.
Scale is the thing to keep in view here. The winner board has traded 55 times the volume of the ranking board and holds roughly 32 times the resting liquidity. When a 14.2 million dollar book and a 257,000 dollar book disagree, the prior is not that they are equally informative.
The prices after the overround comes out
Comparing 62.00 against 62.50 directly is sloppy, because the two books carry different overrounds: the ranking board sums to 102.05 and the winner board to 99.95. Normalising both to 100 is the only honest comparison, and it changes the story.
| Board (normalised) | Gen.G | BLG | Not in the final |
|---|---|---|---|
| Worlds 2026 winner | 62.53 | 37.47 | 0.00 |
| Global Power Rankings no. 1 | 60.75 | 37.82 | 1.42 |
| Difference | -1.78 | +0.36 | +1.42 |
So the ranking board does still price the possibility that the 2026 number one is a team that is not playing on Saturday, and it values that at 1.42 points. It funds almost all of it by shading Gen.G, taking 1.78 points off them while adding only 0.36 to Bilibili Gaming.
We think that allocation is backwards. If this ranking can diverge from the trophy, the team it should diverge in favour of is the one with the stronger season-long and international body of work, and that is not Gen.G.
This market used to ask a different question
The clearest evidence that these are two different questions is what the two boards did while Worlds was being played. We aligned both price histories on the same timestamps and took the gap.
| Date | Ranking: GEN | Winner: GEN | Gap | Ranking: BLG | Winner: BLG | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Oct | 31.50 | 30.50 | +1.00 | 26.50 | 17.50 | +9.00 |
| 20 Oct | 31.50 | 31.50 | 0.00 | 29.00 | 16.50 | +12.50 |
| 27 Oct | 49.50 | 43.50 | +6.00 | 9.00 | 11.50 | -2.50 |
| 1 Nov | 56.50 | 46.50 | +10.00 | 18.80 | 15.05 | +3.75 |
| 3 Nov | 65.00 | 48.50 | +16.50 | 19.85 | 15.25 | +4.60 |
| 6 Nov | 63.50 | 53.50 | +10.00 | 22.85 | 24.70 | -1.85 |
| 9 Nov | 63.50 | 62.50 | +1.00 | 36.75 | 37.55 | -0.80 |
| 12 Nov | 62.00 | 62.50 | -0.50 | 38.60 | 37.45 | +1.15 |
Through late October the ranking market had Bilibili Gaming nine to 12.5 points above where the trophy market had them, which is a rational reading of a team that had already won an international event that year. The single widest print on Gen.G came at midnight on 1 November, 66.50 on the ranking against 46.50 on the trophy, a 20-point spread. The widest on Bilibili Gaming was 13 points, on 21 October.
Then both gaps shut. Since 9 November the two boards have agreed to within about a point, which is the market deciding that the final now settles the ranking too. That is mostly right, because Worlds playoffs carry the heaviest weight in the model. Mostly right is not the same as entirely right.
The 2026 record the ranking is built to reward
Here is the part the convergence glosses over. The ranking weights international results, both directly through team performance and indirectly through the 20 percent league-Elo term. Lay out the 2026 international season and the favourite is the team with less of it.
| Event | When | Gen.G | Bilibili Gaming |
|---|---|---|---|
| First Stand | 16-22 Mar, Sao Paulo | 3rd-4th: won Group B 2-0, lost 0-3 to G2 in the semi | Champion, beat G2 3-1 |
| Mid-Season Invitational | 28 Jun - 12 Jul, South Korea | Did not qualify, lost the LCK decider 2-3 to T1 | Runner-up, lost 2-3 to Hanwha Life |
| Worlds | From 15 Oct, North America | Finalist, beat Invictus Gaming 3-0 in the semi | Finalist, beat T1 3-1 in the semi |
Bilibili Gaming have played three international events in 2026 and reached the final of all three, winning one. Gen.G have played two, winning neither, and were absent from MSI entirely because T1 beat them in the qualifying decider. Gen.G's case rests on the second half of the year: an unbeaten LCK playoff run and a Worlds bracket they came through 3-0 and 3-0.
Recency is a real factor in the model and it favours Gen.G, which is why they deserve to be favourites on this board as well as the other one. But the specific question of whether the loser of Saturday's final can still finish top is a question about the whole year, and the whole year belongs to Bilibili Gaming. A combined 1.42 points for every non-finalist, with only 0.36 of the ranking board's divergence going to BLG, does not look like a market that has thought about it.
The 23 eliminated teams are priced at dust
Twenty-three teams that are already out still carry a quote, and it is tempting to read a ranking into them. Do not. Twenty of the 23 sit at exactly 0.05 and three sit at 0.15, and every one of them shows an ask of 0.001 or 0.002 against either no bid at all or a 0.001 bid. These are minimum-tick prices, not opinions.
The ordering inside that group is noise, and one comparison proves it: Hanwha Life, who actually won MSI in July and have the best claim of any eliminated team to a high season-long Elo, are quoted at 0.05, the same as Weibo Gaming and CFO, while Dplus KIA and LYON sit three times higher at 0.15. There is no reading of the ranking model that produces that order. It is the residue of where people were holding positions when the bracket ended. If you want the structure of the leagues these teams came from, we cover it in LoL esports leagues explained.
Six markets showing 50 percent that are not real
Scroll this event and six contracts appear to be coin flips: five labelled A, B, C, D and E, plus one reading "another team". Every one of them shows 50.00. None of them is a price.
All six have traded exactly zero dollars, and all six quote 0 bid against 1 ask, which is the widest spread a book can show. Polymarket displays the midpoint of that empty quote, and the midpoint of nothing is 50. The A through E contracts are unassigned placeholder slots the event was built with. The "another team" contract is the real "Other" outcome the resolution rules lean on, and it is completely untraded, so the one number a reader might actually want, the market's price on an unlisted team finishing top, does not exist.
This is not unique to the ranking board. The Worlds winner event carries a "Team I" and an "another team" contract at 50.00, and every one of the ten slots on the Finals MVP event shows 50.00 for the same reason. If you take one habit from this article, take this one: on any Polymarket event, check volume before you believe a price. A number with no trades behind it is a placeholder wearing a percentage. Our methodology page sets out how we handle untraded midpoints, and how to use Polymarket walks through reading a board.
How we would read this board
Gen.G should be the favourite here. They are the favourite in the final, the final carries the model's heaviest weight, and the recency term points their way. Nothing in this article argues otherwise.
What we would not do is treat 62.00 and 38.60 as a better-informed version of 62.50 and 37.45. The causation runs the other way: the thin board has followed the deep one, and it has overshot, pushing a structural difference between the two questions down to a point and change and then funding even that out of the favourite rather than the challenger. If the ranking can come apart from the trophy, Bilibili Gaming is the team it comes apart for, and 37.82 normalised against 37.47 on the trophy board is not much of a premium for that.
The honest summary is that this is a market worth watching rather than a mispricing worth chasing: the edge, if it is there, is well inside the two-point spread on Gen.G's own quote. We will revisit it when the final 2026 ranking actually publishes. Live boards update on the Worlds hub, and the tools page has the converter if you want these numbers in decimal or American odds.
Related reading
- Gen.G vs Bilibili Gaming: Worlds 2026 final odds
- Worlds 2026 winner odds
- Worlds 2026 winning region odds
- Worlds 2026 final: how to watch
- Every LoL Worlds winner
- What is MSI in League of Legends?
Prices in this article were read from Polymarket's Global Power Rankings event at 16:12 UTC on 12 November 2026. The ranking's inputs and weighting are from Riot's official Global Power Rankings page; First Stand results are from the 2026 First Stand Tournament page. RiftOdds earns a commission if you sign up to Polymarket through our link. Odds are implied probabilities, not predictions. 18+, and please stake responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
What are the LoL Global Power Rankings 2026 odds?
Polymarket prices Gen.G at 62.00 and Bilibili Gaming at 38.60 to finish 2026 ranked number one, read at 16:12 UTC on 12 November 2026. Twenty-three eliminated teams carry a combined 1.45 points, and the whole traded book sums to 102.05, so there is about two points of overround to remove before comparing those numbers with any other market.
What are the Global Power Rankings in League of Legends?
They are Riot's official Elo-style ranking of every tier-one team, run with AWS and updated after every game of a regional split or international event. The Power Score is 80 percent the team's own Elo and 20 percent their league's Elo, a split Riot says it chose after testing with regional experts for around 65 percent predictive accuracy.
Is the number one ranked team always the Worlds champion?
No, and that is the whole reason this market is not a copy of the final. The ranking weights Worlds playoffs most heavily, so the champion is usually the favourite, but it also counts recent form, in-game dominance, strength of opponent and your league's international results across the entire year. A team can hold the top Power Score on a body of work one best-of-five does not fully overturn.
Why is Bilibili Gaming more expensive here than on the Worlds winner board?
BLG trades at 38.60 on the ranking board against 37.45 on the winner board, a 1.15-point premium. That gap is the market's price on BLG topping the ranking without winning the final, which is plausible because BLG won First Stand and were MSI runners-up while Gen.G won no international event in 2026. Normalised for each book's overround the premium shrinks to 0.36 points, which we think is too small.
Why do six teams on this market show 50 percent?
Because they have never traded. The contracts labelled A, B, C, D, E and "another team" show zero volume and quote 0 bid against 1 ask, and Polymarket displays the midpoint of that empty spread, which is 50. A through E are unassigned placeholder slots. The same artefact appears on the Worlds winner board and on all ten Finals MVP slots, so check volume before trusting any price on a Polymarket event.
When does the Global Power Rankings market resolve?
When the final 2026 ranking is published after Worlds. The contract's end date is 15 January 2027 at 04:59 UTC, and if no number one has been published by 14 January 2027 it resolves to "Other" instead of to the champion. Ties are broken alphabetically, which in a Gen.G against Bilibili Gaming tie would favour Bilibili Gaming.
Should I trade this market instead of the Worlds final?
We would not, on size. The winner board has traded 14.2 million dollars against this board's 257,088 and holds roughly 32 times the resting liquidity, and any edge we can argue for here is smaller than the two-point bid-ask spread on Gen.G's own quote. It is a market worth watching through Saturday rather than one worth chasing, and nothing here is advice.