Key takeaways
- Europe's three teams cost 6.45 percent; the contract on Europe costs 5.70. The LEC has exactly three Worlds seeds and all three carry a price, so the two numbers describe the same event and disagree by 0.75 points. Book mids, pulled at 21:15 UTC on 5 October 2026.
- Karmine Corp is the most-traded contract on the entire winner board. 40,696 dollars against Gen.G's 30,946, on a price of 0.85 percent. G2 are second at 36,399. The two busiest contracts at Worlds 2026 are both European.
- The market rates Karmine Corp above Movistar KOI, who swept them 3-0 two weeks ago. KC trade at 2.43 times MKOI and have to win a four-team play-in first. Back that out and KC are worth 1.4 to 3.4 percent once they reach the Swiss stage, against MKOI's 0.35.
- Movistar KOI are priced below North America's second seed. LYON are 1.05 percent, MKOI 0.35 — three times as much — while the region board has Europe at 4.56 times North America. Both cannot be right.
- Europe is the only region of the big three to gain ground this week. The LEC rose 0.55 points in seven days while Korea and China each shed a full point — and all three LEC teams got cheaper over the same stretch.
On this page
- The LEC Worlds 2026 odds, seed by seed
- The most-traded contract at Worlds is a 0.85 percent shot
- The market has Karmine Corp above the team that swept them
- Movistar KOI are cheaper than North America's second seed
- Europe's three teams cost more than Europe
- What that gap is worth at prices you can hit
- Europe gained ground while all three of its teams fell
- What Europe's 5.70 percent is actually paying for
- How we would read the LEC Worlds 2026 odds board
- Related reading
- Frequently asked questions
Search LEC Worlds 2026 odds today and the best page you will find is about the wrong tournament. The three results above us cover the LEC's own domestic split, one of them from January, and the fourth says plainly that no Worlds 2026 odds exist yet. There are two Polymarket books on this tournament carrying 938,000 dollars of combined volume between them.
That matters because Europe's seeds stopped being a question on 21 September and the prices have not settled with them. G2 Esports, Movistar KOI and Karmine Corp are all going. One of them is the busiest contract on the whole board. One is priced below the team that finished second in North America. And the three of them together cost more than the single contract that pays out if any of them wins.
So we did the work those pages skip. We pulled both Worlds 2026 books off Polymarket's Gamma API at 21:15 UTC on 5 October 2026, fetched the CLOB order book for every contract rather than trusting the last trade, pulled seven days of price history on each one, and checked the seeds against two independent match reports.
Korea's four seeds are priced in LCK Worlds 2026 odds, North America's in LCS Worlds 2026 odds, and the full nineteen-slot picture is in Worlds 2026 qualified teams.
The LEC Worlds 2026 odds, seed by seed
G2 Esports swept Movistar KOI 3-0 in the LEC Summer final on 21 September, their twentieth LEC title and a clean sweep of the domestic 2026 season. That result set all three European seeds at once: G2 first, Movistar KOI second, Karmine Corp third after losing 3-1 to G2 in the upper bracket and then 3-0 to MKOI in the lower-bracket final.
The seed number is not cosmetic. First and second go straight to the Swiss stage in Allen, Texas. Third starts in the play-in in Los Angeles, where four teams fight over one slot and three go home before the tournament proper begins.
| Team | LEC seed | Starts in | Last trade | Best bid | Best ask | Book mid | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G2 Esports | 1st (champions) | Swiss stage | 5.30 | 5.20 | 5.30 | 5.25 | $36,399 |
| Karmine Corp | 3rd | Play-in | 0.90 | 0.80 | 0.90 | 0.85 | $40,696 |
| Movistar KOI | 2nd (runners-up) | Swiss stage | 0.30 | 0.30 | 0.40 | 0.35 | $14,566 |
| LEC teams, summed | 6.45 | $91,661 | |||||
| LEC region contract | 5.70 | $54,950 | |||||
Two things in that table are worth sitting with before anything else. The three teams add up to more than the region. And the team priced second of the three has traded more than either of the others.
The most-traded contract at Worlds is a 0.85 percent shot
Rank the Worlds 2026 winner board by volume rather than price and the order inverts at the top. The favourite is fourth. The two busiest contracts are both European, and the busiest of all belongs to the team that has to clear a play-in bracket before it plays a tournament game.
| # | Team | Volume | Book mid | Resting liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karmine Corp | $40,696 | 0.85% | $26,470 |
| 2 | G2 Esports | $36,399 | 5.25% | $41,485 |
| 3 | Bilibili Gaming | $32,449 | 18.50% | $28,903 |
| 4 | Gen.G | $30,946 | 32.50% | $39,720 |
| 5 | Dplus KIA | $23,378 | 4.20% | $27,370 |
| 6 | T1 | $23,061 | 16.50% | $39,389 |
| 7 | Anyone's Legend | $20,815 | 4.60% | $27,913 |
| 12 | Movistar KOI | $14,566 | 0.35% | $25,640 |
Karmine Corp's following is the obvious explanation, and we think it is most of the answer. KC are the most-supported team in European League of Legends by some distance, and support shows up as flow on a contract priced low enough that a 50-dollar ticket moves it a point.
It has a consequence worth naming: the volume number on this board is not a confidence signal. On a sportsbook, heavy money on a longshot drags the line. Here the price sat at 0.85 percent through all 40,696 dollars of it, because the other side keeps getting filled. Read the price, not the turnover.
The market has Karmine Corp above the team that swept them
Movistar KOI beat Karmine Corp 3-0 on 20 September to reach the LEC final. Fifteen days later the market prices Karmine Corp at 0.85 percent and Movistar KOI at 0.35 — KC are 2.43 times MKOI — and KC carry an extra obstacle MKOI do not.
That obstacle is the play-in: four teams, 15 to 18 October at the Riot Games Arena in Los Angeles, double elimination, every series a best-of-five, one Swiss-stage slot. We priced the bracket itself in Worlds 2026 play-in odds, and the headline from that piece holds — every route through it costs three series wins, with no two-win path.
So KC's 0.85 is a product of two things: the chance they get out of Los Angeles, and what they are worth at Worlds once they do. Divide one out and you get the other.
| If Karmine Corp clear the play-in with probability… | Their implied Swiss-stage title price | Nearest-priced team on the board |
|---|---|---|
| 25% (equal-field baseline) | 3.40% | Between Invictus Gaming (2.90) and Dplus KIA (4.20) |
| 40% | 2.12% | Just under Invictus Gaming (2.90) |
| 50% | 1.70% | Above Top Esports and Team Liquid (1.40) |
| 60% | 1.42% | Level with Top Esports (1.40) |
| 85% (their share of bracket equity) | 1.00% | Just under LYON (1.05) |
The bottom row needs explaining, because it is the market's own estimate rather than ours. The four play-in teams carry 1.00 percent of title equity between them and Karmine Corp are 0.85 of it — so the board already thinks KC are 85 percent of the value in their own bracket. Taking that as the advance probability is the most generous reading available, and even then KC land at 1.00 percent conditional, nearly three times Movistar KOI.
At the honest middle of that range, around 1.4 to 2.1 percent, the market has Karmine Corp four to six times Movistar KOI as a team. Two weeks after MKOI swept them. That is a real position, not an error: KC took G2 to four games and MKOI did not win one off them, and a single best-of-five is thin evidence. But it is a position, and anyone reading the raw 0.85 against 0.35 is seeing a 2.4x gap where the market is expressing something closer to 5x.
Movistar KOI are cheaper than North America's second seed
Movistar KOI are the LEC runners-up with a direct Swiss berth, and at 0.35 percent they are the third-cheapest of the twelve teams that skip the play-in. Only the LCP's two seeds cost less. Set them against the other regions' second seeds and the board stops agreeing with itself.
| Region | Second seed | Team price | Region price | Team as share of region |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LCK | Hanwha Life Esports | 15.50% | 68.50% | 23% |
| LPL | Anyone's Legend | 4.60% | 24.50% | 19% |
| LEC | Movistar KOI | 0.35% | 5.70% | 6% |
| LCS | LYON | 1.05% | 1.25% | 84% |
| LCP | CTBC Flying Oyster | 0.05% | 0.25% | 20% |
Every other region's second seed is worth between 19 and 23 percent of its region, with North America's an outlier at 84 because the LCS price is so low that LYON almost is North America. Europe's second seed is worth 6 percent of Europe. And LYON, at 1.05, cost three times Movistar KOI while North America as a region costs less than a quarter of what Europe does.
You cannot hold both of those views. Either Europe's 5.70 is too high, or MKOI's 0.35 is too low, or the LCS board is stale — and the LCS board is the one to suspect first, since it also prices its three teams at double its own region contract. The cleanest reading is that G2 are carrying Europe's entire regional price and the market has not bothered to mark MKOI up to match.
Europe's three teams cost more than Europe
The LEC has exactly three Worlds seeds, all three are individually priced, and exactly one team wins the tournament. So the sum of the three team prices and the single region price describe an identical event and must match. Across the board, they mostly do.
| Region | Teams priced | Sum of teams | Region contract | Gap | Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LCK (South Korea) | 4 of 4 | 68.70% | 68.50% | +0.20 | 1.00x |
| LPL (China) | 4 of 4 | 27.40% | 24.50% | +2.90 | 1.12x |
| LEC (Europe) | 3 of 3 | 6.45% | 5.70% | +0.75 | 1.13x |
| LCS (North America) | 3 of 3 | 2.50% | 1.25% | +1.25 | 2.00x |
| LCP (Asia-Pacific) | 3 of 3 | 0.25% | 0.25% | 0.00 | 1.00x |
| CBLOL (Brazil) | 1 of 2 | 0.05% | 0.15% | -0.10 | 0.33x |
Korea matches to a fifth of a point and the LCP matches exactly, which tells you the exercise is sound rather than an artefact of how we are pulling prices. Brazil is the one line to ignore: FURIA have no contract on the winner board at all, so its 0.05 is one team of two and the gap is a missing market, not a mispricing.
Europe's +0.75 is third-largest in absolute terms and middling in proportion. We measured China's version of this at +4.85 points on 1 October in Worlds 2026 winning region odds; it has since closed to +2.90. Europe's has closed too, and faster, which is the more interesting fact.
What that gap is worth at prices you can hit
A 0.75-point inconsistency sounds like free money and is not, for the same reason it survives: nobody can take it in size. Mids are the average of a bid and an ask, and you transact at neither.
The honest version is to sell the three teams at their bids and buy the region at its offer. Sell G2 at 5.20, Karmine Corp at 0.80 and Movistar KOI at 0.30 for 6.30 percent, then pay 6.10 for the LEC region contract. That is 0.20 points of edge, not 0.75 — and the LEC region bid is good for 18 shares.
The depth, in full. G2: 8,113 shares bid at 5.20. Movistar KOI: 32,788 shares bid at 0.30. Karmine Corp: 106 shares bid at 0.80. LEC region: 18 shares bid at 5.30, 119 offered at 6.10.
The cheapest team on the board carries 300 times the resting bid depth of the team priced 2.4 times higher. Order-book depth on this board has almost nothing to do with price.
So two points of discipline, and they generalise past this market. Quote book mids, because the last trade on a thin contract is whatever the last buyer paid for a handful of shares. And size any gap you find against the depth on the thin leg, which here is twenty-odd dollars.
Europe gained ground while all three of its teams fell
Seven days of history make the direction clear, and the two books disagree about it. Europe's region contract went up. Every European team went down.
| Contract | 28 September | 5 October | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| LCK (South Korea) | 69.50% | 68.50% | -1.00 |
| LPL (China) | 25.50% | 24.50% | -1.00 |
| LEC (Europe) | 5.15% | 5.70% | +0.55 |
| LCS (North America) | 0.95% | 1.25% | +0.30 |
| G2 Esports | 5.30% | 5.25% | -0.05 |
| Karmine Corp | 1.20% | 0.85% | -0.35 |
| Movistar KOI | 0.45% | 0.35% | -0.10 |
| LEC teams, summed | 6.95% | 6.45% | -0.50 |
The gap between Europe's parts and Europe's whole has halved in a week, from 1.80 points to 0.75, and it closed from both ends at once. That is what convergence looks like on a market approaching its event: the deeper region book pulled up, the thinner team prices drifted down, and the two met most of the way.
It also means the headline inconsistency in this article is a shrinking one. If the last week's rate continues, the two books agree by the time the play-in starts. The whole region board has tightened over the same stretch, from 101.55 percent to 100.35.
Karmine Corp are the mover inside Europe: down 0.35 points in seven days, a 29 percent fall, and down from the 2.10 percent we recorded on 20 September. Most of that is the calendar. A play-in team's price decays as the bracket gets closer and the chance of a soft draw stops being a thing you can hope for.
What Europe's 5.70 percent is actually paying for
Fifteen Worlds have been played. Europe has won one of them, and the detail that matters is which one.
| Region | Titles (2011-2025) | Base rate | Region price now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Korea (LCK) | 10 | 66.7% | 68.50% |
| China (LPL) | 3 | 20.0% | 24.50% |
| Europe (LEC) | 1 | 6.7% | 5.70% |
| Asia-Pacific | 1 | 6.7% | 0.25% |
| North America (LCS) | 0 | 0.0% | 1.25% |
Korea and China trade within a few points of their fifteen-year rates. Europe trades a point below its own. On the long base rate, 5.70 is close to fair and very slightly cheap.
The recent record argues the other way. Europe's one title was Fnatic in 2011, in a final against Against All Authority — both teams European. Europe has reached two finals since, Fnatic in 2018 and G2 in 2019, and lost both to Chinese sides. So Europe has never beaten an Eastern team in a Worlds final, and has not put a team in one for six editions.
Price the last eight Worlds instead of all fifteen and Europe's rate is zero, same as North America's. The market is paying the long rate, and that is a defensible choice rather than an oversight — but it is the choice being made, and it is most of why 5.70 looks generous next to G2 being the only European team anyone is really pricing.
How we would read the LEC Worlds 2026 odds board
The LEC Worlds 2026 odds worth quoting are the region contract at 5.70 percent and G2 at 5.25, both on book mids, both from books deep enough to mean something. Everything else on Europe's board is small numbers on thin liquidity, and small numbers on thin liquidity are where confident-sounding analysis goes to die.
Three things we would hold onto. The parts-versus-whole gap is real, is 0.20 points rather than 0.75 at hittable prices, and is closing fast enough that it may be gone before Worlds starts. Karmine Corp's price is a play-in price, so compare it to other play-in teams or divide the bracket out before comparing it to anyone in the Swiss stage. And Movistar KOI at 0.35 is the one number on Europe's board we would actually argue with, because nothing about finishing second in the LEC and skipping the play-in supports being priced a third of North America's runner-up.
If you want the tournament-wide version of this, the full team board is in Worlds 2026 winner odds and the dates and venues in LoL Worlds 2026: location, dates and schedule. Our live European table sits on the LEC standings page.
Related reading
- LEC Playoffs 2026: bracket, Worlds slots and odds
- Worlds 2026 winner odds: the full team board
- Worlds 2026 winning region odds: Korea at 68.5%
- Worlds 2026 play-in odds: 4 teams, 1 slot
- LCK Worlds 2026 odds: Gen.G, HLE, T1 and Dplus KIA
- Worlds 2026 format explained: play-in, Swiss and knockouts
Frequently asked questions
Which LEC teams qualified for Worlds 2026?
Three: G2 Esports as LEC Summer champions, Movistar KOI as runners-up and Karmine Corp in third. G2 beat Movistar KOI 3-0 in the final on 21 September 2026 for their twentieth LEC title. G2 and Movistar KOI go straight to the Swiss stage in Allen, Texas; Karmine Corp start in the play-in in Los Angeles.
What are the LEC Worlds 2026 odds on Polymarket?
G2 Esports are 5.25 percent to win the tournament, Karmine Corp 0.85 and Movistar KOI 0.35. The single contract on Europe winning Worlds trades at 5.70 percent. All four are order-book mids pulled at 21:15 UTC on 5 October 2026 and will have moved since.
Why do Europe's three teams add up to more than the Europe contract?
Because the two books have different depth and different traders. The LEC has exactly three seeds and one team can win, so 6.45 percent of teams against a 5.70 percent region contract is an inconsistency rather than a nuance. It is also shrinking: the same gap was 1.80 points a week ago. At prices you could actually transact, selling the teams at their bids against the region offer, it is worth 0.20 points on 18 shares of depth.
Why is Karmine Corp priced above Movistar KOI when MKOI beat them 3-0?
The market is treating that 3-0 as a thin sample and rating Karmine Corp the stronger side. Karmine Corp also start in the play-in, so their 0.85 percent already has a bracket discount in it — divide it out and they are worth 1.4 to 3.4 percent once they reach the Swiss stage, against Movistar KOI's unconditional 0.35. Whether you agree, that is the view being priced.
Why is Karmine Corp the most-traded Worlds 2026 contract?
Fan flow, almost certainly. Karmine Corp have the largest following in European League of Legends, and 40,696 dollars of volume on a sub-one-percent contract is a lot of small tickets rather than a few large ones. The price did not move through any of it, which is the tell: treat volume on this board as interest, not information.
When does Karmine Corp's Worlds 2026 run start?
The play-in runs 15 to 18 October 2026 at the Riot Games Arena in Los Angeles. It is four teams, double elimination, every series a best-of-five, and exactly one of the four reaches the Swiss stage. The field is the third seeds from the LEC, LCS and LCP plus the CBLOL runner-up, whose identity is decided by Los Grandes against FURIA on 10 October.
Has a European team ever won Worlds?
Once, in 2011, when Fnatic beat Against All Authority in a final between two European teams. Europe has reached two finals since — Fnatic in 2018 and G2 Esports in 2019 — and lost both to Chinese teams, so no European side has beaten an Eastern team in a Worlds final. Korea has won 10 of the 15 editions played and China 3.
Where can I see the LEC Worlds 2026 odds move?
Our Worlds hub carries the live board and the LEC standings page tracks the European season. Both read from the same Polymarket books quoted here, so prices there will be fresher than this article's snapshot.
Sources. Team prices from the Worlds 2026 winner market and region prices from the Worlds 2026 winning region market, both via the Gamma API with CLOB order books and seven-day price history, pulled at 21:15 UTC on 5 October 2026. Format, dates, venues and seeding from the 2026 World Championship record and Riot's Worlds 2026 primer. Title history from the World Championship results record. LEC Summer final and seeding as reported by GosuGamers and EarlyGame. Every price is a book mid and every one of them will have moved.