Key takeaways
- The T1 Worlds 2026 odds are 16.5 percent to win the title, and 15.76 percent once the board's margin comes off. That is 0.16 bid against 0.17 offered on 75,646 dollars traded, fourth behind Gen.G at 30.5, Hanwha Life at 18.5 and Bilibili Gaming at 18.5.
- The market has Hanwha Life above the three-time defending champions. HLE now field Zeus and Gumayusi, who between them own five of T1's six rings, and they beat T1 3-1 in the LCK lower-bracket final that sent T1 to Worlds as Korea's third seed.
- T1's price halved in three days in September. 30.0 percent on 10 September, 25.0 on the 12th, 15.0 on the 13th, the day the LCK playoffs settled their seed. The low since is 13.5 on 1 October and the high is 18.5 on 13 October.
- bet365's +350 on T1 implies 22.22 percent, six and a half points richer than the market. Their top four alone sum to 97.78 percent, against 84.00 on Polymarket's mids, so the generous-looking price sits inside a far bigger margin.
- The Finals MVP board prices T1's five players at 28.00 percent combined, against a 16.50 title price. Peyz alone is 11.5, second favourite for the award, with no Worlds title to his name. On the bid side the five sum to 17.80 against T1's 16.00 bid, so the gap is mostly spread, not opinion.
On this page
- T1 Worlds 2026 odds: what the boards say
- Fourth favourite, and the gap to Gen.G
- Thirty percent to fifteen in three September days
- Four of the three-peat five, and the two who left
- 16.5 percent or 22.2: the margin nobody prints
- T1's Swiss draw: one of three, then a bracket of eight
- The MVP board prices T1 above the title board, twice
- How we would read the T1 Worlds 2026 odds
- Related reading
- Frequently asked questions
If you are looking for T1 Worlds 2026 odds, the number you want is 16.5 percent, and the number nobody prints next to it is 15.76, which is what is left after the board's margin comes off. T1 are the fourth favourite at their own fourth consecutive World Championship.
That ordering is the whole story. T1 have won the last three Worlds, they are the only team ever to three-peat, and Faker is chasing a seventh ring. The market still puts three teams in front of them, one of which is built around two players who were lifting trophies in T1 jerseys eleven months ago.
We pulled every relevant board through Polymarket's Gamma API at 16:25 UTC on 15 October 2026, took best bid and best offer rather than last trade on each one, stripped the placeholder contracts before summing, and pulled T1's daily price history from the CLOB going back to 10 September. Draw pools, stage dates and the roster come from Riot's own tournament record. The field-wide view is in Worlds 2026 winner odds; the Korean seeding picture is in LCK Worlds 2026 odds.
T1 Worlds 2026 odds: what the boards say
T1 appear on five boards, and only two of them have taken real money. Here is every price with the side of the book it came from, because on three of these five the spread is wider than the edge anyone is arguing about.
| Board | Contract | Bid | Mid | Ask | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Worlds 2026: Winner | T1 | 0.16 | 16.50% | 0.17 | $75,646 |
| Worlds 2026 Winning Region | LCK | 0.68 | 68.50% | 0.69 | $146,600 |
| Team to Reach Knockout Stage | T1 | 0.77 | 87.50% | 0.98 | $0 |
| Worlds 2026: Finals MVP | Faker | 0.066 | 7.45% | 0.083 | $565 |
| Faker MVP, any 2026 international event | Yes | 0.046 | 4.95% | 0.053 | $123,864 |
The top two rows are tradeable: a penny wide, six figures through them. The third is a maker's ladder with a flat 0.98 offer and nothing traded on T1's line at all. The bottom two are the same question asked twice, which we come back to below.
One number does the most work here. T1's 16.50 percent is a decimal 6.06 at face value and 6.35 once the overround is removed, and the no-vig figure is the one to compare against a bookmaker.
Fourth favourite, and the gap to Gen.G
The outright board carries eighteen named teams plus two placeholder contracts that sit at a 50 percent mid and belong to nobody. Strip those and the eighteen real mids sum to 104.70 percent, with the bid side alone at 102.00. That is a tight book by esports standards, and it means the no-vig column below is a small correction rather than a rescue.
| Team | Seed | Mid | No-vig | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gen.G | LCK #1 | 30.50% | 29.13% | $87,212 |
| Hanwha Life Esports | LCK #2 | 18.50% | 17.67% | $64,291 |
| Bilibili Gaming | LPL #2 | 18.50% | 17.67% | $87,744 |
| T1 | LCK #3 | 16.50% | 15.76% | $75,646 |
| Anyone's Legend | LPL #1 | 5.25% | 5.01% | $56,565 |
| Dplus KIA | LCK #4 | 4.85% | 4.63% | $60,641 |
| G2 Esports | LEC #1 | 4.75% | 4.54% | $82,884 |
| Invictus Gaming | LPL #4 | 2.45% | 2.34% | $58,811 |
| Top Esports | LPL #3 | 0.75% | 0.72% | $55,949 |
| Team Liquid | LCS #1 | 0.75% | 0.72% | $65,224 |
| Karmine Corp | LEC #3 | 0.65% | 0.62% | $88,184 |
| LYON | LCS #2 | 0.45% | 0.43% | $66,475 |
| Movistar KOI | LEC #2 | 0.25% | 0.24% | $53,752 |
| Team Secret Whales | LCP #1 | 0.15% | 0.14% | $35,689 |
| CTBC Flying Oyster | LCP #2 | 0.15% | 0.14% | $23,045 |
| Cloud9 | LCS #3 | 0.15% | 0.14% | $59,233 |
| MVK Esports | LCP #3 | 0.05% | 0.05% | $2,395 |
| LOS | CBLOL #1 | 0.05% | 0.05% | $9,830 |
Gen.G are priced at nearly double T1. The 13.63-point no-vig gap between them is larger than the entire rest of the field below Invictus Gaming put together, and it comes from the same playoff run that settled the seeds.
Two cross-checks say the board is internally honest. The four LCK teams sum to 70.35 percent on mids and 67.19 once the margin is stripped, against the separate winning-region board, which prices Korea at 68.50 and 67.62 no-vig. Two books, 299,043 dollars of liquidity between them, agreeing to within half a point. When that happens, the honest conclusion is that the price is the price.
Thirty percent to fifteen in three September days
Nobody writing about T1 shows the chart, which is a shame, because the chart is where their season actually sits. Here is the CLOB daily close on T1's winner contract at the dates that moved it.
| Date | T1 price | Change | What happened |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Sep 2026 | 30.0% | series start | LCK playoffs live, T1 still in the upper half |
| 12 Sep 2026 | 25.0% | -4.5 | Drifting as the bracket narrows |
| 13 Sep 2026 | 15.0% | -10.0 | HLE win the lower-bracket final 3-1; T1 finish third |
| 23 Sep 2026 | 19.0% | +4.0 | Post-seeding rebound peak |
| 1 Oct 2026 | 13.5% | -5.5 | Series low |
| 10 Oct 2026 | 16.5% | +3.0 | Draw pools published |
| 13 Oct 2026 | 18.5% | +2.0 | Series high since the collapse |
| 15 Oct 2026 | 16.5% | -2.0 | Play-in opens; today's price |
The 13 September move is the only one that matters. Ten points in a day is the market repricing T1 from a plausible first seed to Korea's third, and everything since has been a 5-point range around the new level. Gen.G's own series runs the other way across the same dates: 27.5 percent on 10 September, 30.5 on the 13th, 38.5 on the 14th.
Read that way, the current 16.5 is not a slump. It is the market's settled post-playoff number, and T1 have spent five weeks failing to break out of it in either direction.
Four of the three-peat five, and the two who left
The roster explains the price better than the form does. T1 kept four starters from the side that won in 2025 and replaced the fifth, and the two players who have left the organisation in the last two years are now both at the team priced above them.
| Player | Role | Worlds titles | Status for 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Doran | Top | 1 | Retained from the 2025 champion side |
| Oner | Jungle | 3 | Retained; 2023, 2024, 2025 |
| Faker | Mid, captain | 6 | Retained; chasing a seventh |
| Peyz | Bot | 0 | Signed Nov 2025 from JD Gaming, through 2028 |
| Keria | Support | 3 | Retained; 2023, 2024, 2025 |
| Zeus | Top | 2 | Now at Hanwha Life; MSI 2026 Finals MVP |
| Gumayusi | Bot | 3 | Now at Hanwha Life; Worlds 2025 Finals MVP |
Hanwha Life field the reigning Worlds Finals MVP and the reigning MSI Finals MVP, and both of them used to play for T1. HLE also won MSI 2026, beating Bilibili Gaming 3-2 in July, which is the result that earned Korea a fourth Worlds slot in the first place.
Peyz is not a weak replacement, which is the point worth making carefully. He is a Gen.G academy product with three LCK titles and an MSI trophy, who spent 2026's early calendar in the LPL with JD Gaming before coming back to Korea. What he does not have is a Worlds ring, and his price on the MVP board is where that tension shows up.
16.5 percent or 22.2: the margin nobody prints
Sportsbooks have T1 shorter than the market does, and at a glance that reads as free value. It is not, and the reason is arithmetic rather than opinion. Here are bet365's quoted prices on the four favourites, converted, against the same four teams' no-vig market probabilities.
| Team | bet365 | Decimal | Implied | Market no-vig | Book richer by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gen.G | +200 | 3.00 | 33.33% | 29.13% | +4.20 |
| Hanwha Life Esports | +350 | 4.50 | 22.22% | 17.67% | +4.55 |
| T1 | +350 | 4.50 | 22.22% | 15.76% | +6.46 |
| Bilibili Gaming | +400 | 5.00 | 20.00% | 17.67% | +2.33 |
| Four-team total | 97.78% | 80.23% | +17.55 |
Those four prices alone account for 97.78 percent of a 100-percent event. That leaves roughly two points for the other fourteen teams, which on Polymarket's board are worth 19.77 between them. The book is not being generous on T1; it is carrying a margin large enough that every favourite looks generous.
Work it the other way and the comparison is useful. T1 at a true 15.76 percent are worth decimal 6.35, so +350 is a price you take only if you think the market is wrong by six and a half points. Our no-vig calculator does this conversion on any book you are actually looking at, and League of Legends betting odds explained walks through why the margin has to come off first.
T1's Swiss draw: one of three, then a bracket of eight
T1 enter at the Swiss stage, which runs 23 to 26 and 28 to 31 October at the Credit Union of Texas Event Center in Allen. Round 1 is drawn on 18 October, and the pools are already published, so T1's opponent set is a known list rather than a guess.
T1 are in Pool 3 with LYON, Movistar KOI and Top Esports. Pool 3 plays Pool 2, and no team can meet a side from its own region in Round 1, which removes Hanwha Life. That leaves exactly three possibilities.
| Possible Round 1 opponent | Seed | Outright mid | Swiss advance mid |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bilibili Gaming | LPL #2 | 18.50% | 82.0% |
| Team Secret Whales | LCP #1 | 0.15% | 16.5% |
| LOS | CBLOL #1 | 0.05% | 6.0% |
| Hanwha Life Esports | LCK #2 | 18.50% | excluded, same region |
One of those three is a co-favourite and two of them are rounding errors. That is an unusually lumpy draw: a third of the time T1 open against the team that made the MSI final, and two thirds of the time they open against a side priced at or below 0.15 percent to win the event.
Round 1 is also a best-of-one. A match only becomes a best-of-three when the result would advance or eliminate a team, so the opening game carries full single-game variance. A side that wins 65 percent of individual games wins 65 percent of its Round 1 matches, against 71.8 percent over a best-of-three. The full stage rules are in Worlds 2026 format explained.
Two T1 prices on two boards imply a third number that neither board quotes: how good the market thinks T1 are once they are through the Swiss stage and into a bracket of eight best-of-fives.
| Step | Market price | Implied |
|---|---|---|
| Reach the knockout stage | 87.50% mid (0.77 bid) | Eight of sixteen Swiss teams advance |
| Win Worlds 2026 | 16.50% mid (0.16 bid) | |
| Win the title given they advance | 18.86% (20.78% on bids) |
A touch under one in five, from a field of eight. Random would be 12.5 percent, so the market has T1 roughly 1.5 times a coin-flip-equivalent seed once they are in the bracket, which is a long way from how a three-time champion usually prices.
Treat the 87.5 gently, though. That board has moved 674 dollars in total and T1's own line has traded nothing, with a 0.77 bid against a flat 0.98 offer. It is worth noting that the board has at least been repaired: its nineteen mids now sum to 805.5 percent against the 800 the format forces, where three days ago the same board summed to 1,069. T1's line alone went from 59 percent to 87.5 in that window.
The MVP board prices T1 above the title board, twice
Here is the clearest internal disagreement in T1's Worlds 2026 odds, and it is one no other page covers. The Worlds Finals MVP award has gone to a player on the champion team in every edition since it was introduced, so a team's five players should sum to roughly that team's probability of winning the tournament. T1's do not.
| Player | Bid | Mid | Ask | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyz | 0.100 | 11.50% | 0.130 | $10,744 |
| Faker | 0.066 | 7.45% | 0.083 | $565 |
| Keria | 0.011 | 3.45% | 0.058 | $286 |
| Oner | none | 3.10% | 0.062 | $151 |
| Doran | 0.001 | 2.50% | 0.049 | $286 |
| T1 five combined | 17.80% | 28.00% | 38.20% | $12,032 |
| T1 to win Worlds | 16.00% | 16.50% | 17.00% | $75,646 |
On mids the MVP board is 11.5 points richer on T1 than the title board. On bids the gap is 1.8 points, and on asks it is 21.2. When one comparison swings that far depending on which side you read, the spread is doing the work, not anyone's opinion: four of those five lines are offered at three to sixty times their bid.
The honest reading is narrower. Only Peyz has a real two-sided quote, 0.100 against 0.130 on 10,744 dollars, and he carries 70 percent of T1's entire title price on his own. The market is saying that if T1 win this, their new bot laner is the reason. Our full board-wide read is in Worlds 2026 MVP odds.
Faker appears twice, on two separate books, and after July the two are asking the same thing. One is "Worlds 2026: Finals MVP, Faker", at a 7.45 percent mid. The other is "Will Faker win a Finals MVP Award at an international event in 2026?", at 4.95.
Why they should now match
Riot's international calendar awards a Finals MVP at two events. MSI 2026 finished on 12 July, Hanwha Life beat Bilibili Gaming 3-2, and Zeus took the award. Worlds is the only one left.
So the broad market is now a strict superset of the narrow one, with nothing extra in it. It should trade at or above the Worlds-only price. It trades 2.50 points below, at 0.053 offered against the Worlds board's 0.066 bid.
That looks like 1.3 cents of free money, and it almost certainly is not. The broad market has taken 123,864 dollars; Faker's line on the Worlds board has taken 565. When a liquid market and an illiquid one disagree, the illiquid one is usually the one that is wrong, so the signal here is that 7.45 is too high rather than that 4.95 is too low.
One caveat we will not paper over: these are two independently worded contracts, and a resolution difference we cannot see from the price would break the comparison. Treat it as evidence about which Faker number to trust, not as a trade.
How we would read the T1 Worlds 2026 odds
The two boards with real money in them agree, with each other and across the region market, that T1 are a 15.76-percent team. We see no case for arguing with that on sentiment. The three-peat is in the price, and so is a 3-1 loss to the team now carrying their former top laner and bot laner.
Where there is something to look at, it is on the thin boards, and all of it points the same way: the Swiss advance line at a 0.77 bid against a 0.98 offer, the MVP board's 28.00 against the title board's 16.50, and Faker quoted 2.5 points apart on two books. None of those is a tradeable edge after the spread. All of them are reasons to take the liquid number and ignore the quoted one.
If you want one thing to watch, it is the 18 October draw. Bilibili Gaming in Round 1 is a materially different tournament from Team Secret Whales in Round 1, the market cannot price that until the draw happens, and it is a best-of-one either way. Live prices are on our Worlds hub.
Related reading
- Worlds 2026 winner odds: every team priced
- LCK Worlds 2026 odds: Gen.G, HLE, T1 and Dplus KIA
- Worlds 2026 Swiss stage odds: who makes quarterfinals
- Worlds 2026 MVP odds: all 52 players priced
- LoL Worlds winners: every champion by year
- Worlds 2026 format explained: Swiss stage maths
Frequently asked questions
What are T1's odds to win Worlds 2026?
16.5 percent on Polymarket, quoted 0.16 bid against 0.17 offered on 75,646 dollars traded, read at 16:25 UTC on 15 October 2026. Stripping the board's margin across its eighteen named teams gives a no-vig 15.76 percent, which is decimal 6.35. That makes T1 the fourth favourite.
Why are T1 not favourites if they won the last three Worlds?
They finished third in the 2026 LCK playoffs and enter as Korea's third seed. Hanwha Life beat them 3-1 in the lower-bracket final, Gen.G won the title, and T1's price fell from 25.0 to 15.0 percent on 13 September as that result landed. Gen.G are now 30.5 percent and HLE 18.5.
Can T1 win four Worlds in a row?
No team has ever won four, and T1 are the only team to have won three. The market gives them 16.5 percent, and 18.86 percent conditional on reaching the knockout stage, where their advance contract is quoted at an 87.5 percent mid. Nothing in those prices rules it out; they simply make it the fourth-likeliest outcome.
Who is on T1's Worlds 2026 roster?
Doran top, Oner jungle, Faker mid and captain, Peyz bot, Keria support. Four are retained from the 2025 champion side. Peyz signed in November 2025 from JD Gaming, replacing Gumayusi, who left for Hanwha Life alongside former T1 top laner Zeus.
Who does T1 play in Round 1 of the Swiss stage?
Unknown until the 18 October draw, but the set is fixed at three. T1 are in Pool 3, Pool 3 faces Pool 2, and the same-region rule removes Hanwha Life, leaving Bilibili Gaming, Team Secret Whales or LOS. Round 1 is a best-of-one.
What are Faker's odds to win Worlds 2026 Finals MVP?
7.45 percent on the Worlds Finals MVP board, 0.066 bid against 0.083, on 565 dollars traded. A separate market on whether he wins a Finals MVP at any 2026 international event is 4.95 percent on 123,864 dollars. With MSI already decided in July, the two cover the same ground, and the liquid one is the lower.
Is T1 at +350 good value?
+350 implies 22.22 percent against a no-vig market probability of 15.76, so it is only value if you think the market is six and a half points wrong. Note that bet365's four favourites sum to 97.78 percent of a 100-percent event, which leaves about two points for the other fourteen teams. Every favourite looks generous inside a margin that size.
Sources. All prices, spreads and volumes are best bid, best offer, book mids and traded volume pulled from Polymarket's Gamma API at 16:25 UTC on 15 October 2026 and will have moved since: the winner market, the winning-region market, the knockout-stage market, the Finals MVP market and the Faker international-MVP market. The daily price history is Polymarket's CLOB prices-history endpoint at 1,440-minute fidelity. Stage dates, venues, draw pools, the same-region rule and the roster come from Riot's LoL Esports tournament record. The LCK playoff result is from GosuGamers, the MSI 2026 result and Zeus's Finals MVP from The Korea Herald, and the bookmaker prices and Riot power ranking from Strafe. No-vig conversions, board sums, the conditional probability and the series-length maths are our own calculations. 18+, please gamble responsibly.