Worlds 2026 Knockout Stage Odds: All 16 Priced

Every preview of this tournament ranks the favourites. None of them checks whether the numbers add up, and on the Worlds 2026 knockout stage odds that is the whole trick: exactly eight of the sixteen Swiss teams reach the quarterfinals, so the sixteen contracts must total 800 percent and not a point more.

Which means it has a right answer you can test in ten seconds, without knowing a thing about League of Legends. A title board sums to 100 and you take it on trust. This one sums to 800 or it does not. Polymarket's sums to 795.65, the only board at Worlds 2026 whose mids sit under the number arithmetic fixes for it rather than over.

We pulled all sixteen contracts through Polymarket's Gamma API at 16:10 UTC on 22 October 2026, took best bid and best offer on every line rather than last trade, pulled each contract's daily price history from the CLOB back to the board's opening on 8 October, and then pulled Kalshi's matching quarterfinalists board, which no competing preview mentions. The title view is in Worlds 2026 winner odds and the two-slot version of this question is in Worlds 2026 grand finals odds.

Worlds 2026 knockout stage odds: all sixteen contracts

Here is every line with the side of the book it came from. The no-vig column rescales each mid so the board totals exactly 800; because the raw board is short of 800, that rescaling nudges every price up rather than down, which is the opposite of what a no-vig column normally does.

Team	Bid	Mid	Ask	No-vig	Decimal	Traded	Quoted
Gen.G	0.910	93.00%	0.950	93.51%	1.07	$1,424	$2,556
Hanwha Life Esports	0.860	87.50%	0.890	87.98%	1.14	$377	$4,044
T1	0.850	86.50%	0.880	86.97%	1.15	$974	$478
Bilibili Gaming	0.840	86.00%	0.880	86.47%	1.16	$1,069	$1,637
Anyone's Legend	0.660	67.50%	0.690	67.87%	1.47	$184	$514
Dplus KIA	0.660	66.50%	0.670	66.86%	1.50	$506	$1,746
G2 Esports	0.600	61.00%	0.620	61.33%	1.63	$605	$1,863
Invictus Gaming	0.490	51.50%	0.540	51.78%	1.93	$307	$486
Team Liquid	0.360	38.00%	0.400	38.21%	2.62	$840	$2,916
Karmine Corp	0.310	34.50%	0.380	34.69%	2.88	$802	$664
Top Esports	0.320	33.50%	0.350	33.68%	2.97	$178	$4,491
LYON	0.310	32.00%	0.330	32.17%	3.11	$1,510	$2,862
Team Secret Whales	0.220	23.00%	0.240	23.13%	4.32	$990	$1,059
Movistar KOI	0.160	19.50%	0.230	19.61%	5.10	$497	$604
CTBC Flying Oyster	0.110	12.00%	0.130	12.07%	8.29	$1,268	$1,469
LOS	0.030	3.65%	0.043	3.67%	27.25	$679	$4,519
All 16	769.00%	795.65%	822.30%	800.00%	—	$12,208	$31,908

Cloud9, FURIA and MVK Esports lost in the Los Angeles play-in and settled to zero, which is why sixteen contracts carry the 800 and not nineteen. The first thing to say out loud is the size: these sixteen have taken 12,208 dollars between them against 2.28 million on the Worlds winner board for the same tournament. Note the last two columns though. There is 31,908 dollars of resting liquidity against 12,208 of trade, so this board is quoted far harder than it is traded, and that ratio is the key to everything below.

The 800 percent test, and the board that fails it downward

Five of the boards at this tournament carry a sum you can check without an opinion. Here they are against their targets, with Kalshi's two for company.

Board	Must sum to	Bid sum	Mid sum	Ask sum	Mid vs target	Two-way width
Polymarket, team to reach knockout stage	800.00%	769.00%	795.65%	822.30%	−4.35 pts	6.66%
Kalshi, Worlds 2026 quarterfinalists	800.00%	778.00%	800.00%	822.00%	0.00 pts	5.50%
Polymarket, team to make grand finals	200.00%	199.30%	213.55%	227.80%	+13.55 pts	14.25%
Polymarket, Worlds winner	100.00%	102.40%	105.65%	108.90%	+5.65 pts	6.50%
Polymarket, winning region	100.00%	99.40%	101.00%	102.60%	+1.00 pt	3.20%
Kalshi, Worlds 2026 champion	100.00%	102.00%	110.00%	118.00%	+10.00 pts	16.00%

Two-way width is the ask sum minus the bid sum over the target, and it is the honest measure of what a board costs, because it does not care whether the mids land high or low. On that measure the knockout board costs 6.66 percent against the finalists board's 14.25. Two boards, almost the same question one slot count apart, and one costs twice as much to trade.

The winner board breaks in the usual direction, and harder than it looks: its bid side sums to 102.40 percent on a board where exactly one team wins. We read 103.10 on 19 October, so that is persistent rather than a glitch.

Kalshi quotes the same board, with four times the volume

Kalshi lists this question as Worlds 2026 Quarterfinalists, and no competing preview we found cites it. It is the better book on this question by a wide margin, which is not what the title boards would lead you to expect.

Team	Polymarket mid	Kalshi mid	Gap	Kalshi traded
Gen.G	93.00%	87.00%	+6.00	$767
Hanwha Life Esports	87.50%	91.50%	−4.00	$628
T1	86.50%	81.50%	+5.00	$944
Bilibili Gaming	86.00%	81.50%	+4.50	$615
Anyone's Legend	67.50%	66.50%	+1.00	$960
Dplus KIA	66.50%	67.50%	−1.00	$10,471
G2 Esports	61.00%	56.00%	+5.00	$5,899
Invictus Gaming	51.50%	50.50%	+1.00	$1,559
Team Liquid	38.00%	36.50%	+1.50	$3,499
Karmine Corp	34.50%	38.00%	−3.50	$7,145
Top Esports	33.50%	31.50%	+2.00	$6,159
LYON	32.00%	38.50%	−6.50	$10,379
Team Secret Whales	23.00%	27.50%	−4.50	$1,866
Movistar KOI	19.50%	24.00%	−4.50	$1,228
CTBC Flying Oyster	12.00%	16.50%	−4.50	$1,881
LOS	3.65%	5.50%	−1.85	$99
All 16	795.65%	800.00%	−4.35	$54,098

No team is more than 6.5 points apart on two books that share no order flow, and that agreement is the strongest evidence here that the shape of the board is right. The gaps also fall in a pattern: Polymarket is higher on six of the eight shortest prices and lower on six of the eight longest. That is the signature of a book whose favourites are keenly quoted and whose longshot offers are not being refreshed, and it is exactly why Polymarket's total lands under 800 while Kalshi's does not.

Two caveats before you lean on the Kalshi column. Its raw board reads 1,000 percent across twenty lines, because Cloud9, FURIA, MVK Esports and LOUD are still listed, quoting zero bid against a one-dollar offer, with 39,048 dollars of volume in contracts that can only settle No. Strip those four and the live sixteen sum to 800.00 exactly. And Hanwha Life is quoted 0.84 bid against 0.99 offered, a fifteen-cent gap that is a third of the board's entire two-way width on its own.

Why 795.65 is not free money

A board four points under its ceiling sounds like a trade. It is not, and the reason is in the only column that matters when you go to deal: what you actually pay. Buying all sixteen at the offer costs 822.30 to collect 800.

Team	Mid	Spread	Spread as % of own price	Quoted / traded
Movistar KOI	19.50%	7.00 pts	35.9%	1.2x
LOS	3.65%	1.30 pts	35.6%	6.7x
Karmine Corp	34.50%	7.00 pts	20.3%	0.8x
CTBC Flying Oyster	12.00%	2.00 pts	16.7%	1.2x
Team Liquid	38.00%	4.00 pts	10.5%	3.5x
Invictus Gaming	51.50%	5.00 pts	9.7%	1.6x
Top Esports	33.50%	3.00 pts	9.0%	25.2x
Team Secret Whales	23.00%	2.00 pts	8.7%	1.1x
Bilibili Gaming	86.00%	4.00 pts	4.7%	1.5x
Gen.G	93.00%	4.00 pts	4.3%	1.8x
T1	86.50%	3.00 pts	3.5%	0.5x
Dplus KIA	66.50%	1.00 pt	1.5%	3.5x

Twelve of sixteen shown; the four omitted sit between 3.3 and 6.3 percent. Dplus KIA is the one line on this board priced like a real market: a single point wide at a 66.5 percent mid, which is tighter than Gen.G's quote at 93. It is also the contract carrying 10,471 dollars on Kalshi, so the two books are agreeing about where the genuine interest is.

Top Esports is the opposite shape. It has 4,491 dollars of resting liquidity against 178 dollars of trade, a ratio of 25 to 1, which is the most-quoted and least-traded contract on the board. A price nobody has taken is a market maker's opinion, not a market's.

The draw, and what has moved since 13 October

The Round 1 pairings were drawn in Los Angeles on 18 October, straight after Karmine Corp won the play-in. Pool 4 teams were drawn against Pool 1, Pool 2 against Pool 3, and no two teams from one region could meet. Here is each match with both teams' knockout prices.

Round 1 match (23 October, Bo1)	Knockout price	Knockout price	Gap
Gen.G vs Invictus Gaming	93.00%	51.50%	41.50
Bilibili Gaming vs Movistar KOI	86.00%	19.50%	66.50
Hanwha Life Esports vs Top Esports	87.50%	33.50%	54.00
LOS vs T1	3.65%	86.50%	82.85
Anyone's Legend vs Karmine Corp	67.50%	34.50%	33.00
Team Liquid vs CTBC Flying Oyster	38.00%	12.00%	26.00
Team Secret Whales vs LYON	23.00%	32.00%	9.00
G2 Esports vs Dplus KIA	61.00%	66.50%	5.50

Two of the eight openers are close by the market's own reckoning, and in both the market prefers the second-named team. G2 against Dplus KIA is the only one where it has the lower-profile side in front, 66.5 to 61.0. Everything else is a 26-point mismatch or worse, which is what a semi-random draw across four seeding pools is designed to produce in the first round.

The board itself has moved in one direction since the field closed. These are the nine biggest changes between 13 October, the first day all sixteen contracts priced a settled field, and this read.

Team	13 October	22 October	Change	Traded
Team Secret Whales	10.50%	23.00%	+12.5	$990
Invictus Gaming	41.00%	51.50%	+10.5	$307
Anyone's Legend	61.00%	67.50%	+6.5	$184
Karmine Corp	28.00%	34.50%	+6.5	$802
Dplus KIA	61.00%	66.50%	+5.5	$506
LYON	37.00%	32.00%	−5.0	$1,510
G2 Esports	67.00%	61.00%	−6.0	$605
Top Esports	40.50%	33.50%	−7.0	$178
Movistar KOI	29.50%	19.50%	−10.0	$497

Read those with the volume column next to them. Invictus Gaming has gained 10.5 points on 307 dollars of lifetime trade and Anyone's Legend 6.5 points on 184. On a contract that has taken under 500 dollars, a ten-point move is a maker re-quoting, not news, and the board's own daily sum proves it: it read 908 percent on 19 October and 853.50 on 20 October before settling back to 795.65, a 112-point round trip in three days on a question whose answer cannot move that fast. LOS alone read 6.0 on 17 October, 49.5 on 19 October and 3.65 today.

Korea is priced for 3.33 of the eight slots

Summing the board by region turns sixteen probabilities into an expected slot count, and this is the one cut where the market makes a clear, falsifiable statement.

Region	Teams in Swiss	Sum of prices	Expected slots of 8	Share of field	Average per team
LCK (Korea)	4	333.50%	3.33	41.9%	83.4%
LPL (China)	4	238.50%	2.39	30.0%	59.6%
LEC (EMEA)	3	115.00%	1.15	14.5%	38.3%
LCS (North America)	2	70.00%	0.70	8.8%	35.0%
LCP (Asia-Pacific)	2	35.00%	0.35	4.4%	17.5%
CBLOL (Brazil)	1	3.65%	0.04	0.5%	3.6%
Total	16	795.65%	7.96	100%	—

Three of Korea's four teams through is the modal outcome, with a real chance of all four. 3.33 of four means the market is roughly a third of the way from "three through" to "clean sweep", and Dplus KIA at 66.5 is the team it is unsure about. China's 2.39 from four says the same thing one notch lower: Bilibili Gaming is safe, Anyone's Legend likely, and Invictus Gaming and Top Esports are a coin flip and a long shot.

The bottom of that table is where the Swiss format bites. LCP and CBLOL have three teams between them priced for 0.39 slots, and the format guarantees that two teams finish 0-3 and go out in three rounds. Someone has to fill those seats, and the board says it is most likely to be LOS, CTBC Flying Oyster or Movistar KOI.

What the market thinks you do once you are through

Three boards price three consecutive stages for the same sixteen teams, so dividing one by the next reads out what the market thinks happens after the qualification it has just priced. All sixteen lines pass the monotonicity test: no team is priced more likely to reach the final than the quarterfinals.

Team	Knockouts	Grand final	Title	Final given knockouts	Title given final
Gen.G	93.00%	47.50%	33.50%	51.1%	70.5%
Hanwha Life Esports	87.50%	36.00%	17.50%	41.1%	48.6%
T1	86.50%	34.00%	15.50%	39.3%	45.6%
Bilibili Gaming	86.00%	30.50%	16.50%	35.5%	54.1%
Anyone's Legend	67.50%	15.50%	5.40%	23.0%	34.8%
Invictus Gaming	51.50%	10.60%	3.70%	20.6%	34.9%
Dplus KIA	66.50%	13.50%	6.75%	20.3%	50.0%
G2 Esports	61.00%	9.00%	3.75%	14.8%	41.7%
Top Esports	33.50%	3.95%	0.85%	11.8%	21.5%
Karmine Corp	34.50%	3.70%	0.70%	10.7%	18.9%
CTBC Flying Oyster	12.00%	1.20%	—	10.0%	—
LYON	32.00%	3.00%	0.45%	9.4%	15.0%
Team Liquid	38.00%	2.70%	0.65%	7.1%	24.1%
Movistar KOI	19.50%	1.35%	0.25%	6.9%	18.5%
LOS	3.65%	0.25%	—	6.8%	—
Team Secret Whales	23.00%	0.80%	0.15%	3.5%	—

Two readings jump out. Invictus Gaming is the most dangerous team on the board relative to its odds of arriving: 51.5 percent to get through and 20.6 percent to reach the final once there, which beats Dplus KIA's 20.3 on a fifteen-point worse qualification price. And CTBC Flying Oyster at 10.0 outranks Team Liquid at 7.1, LYON at 9.4 and Movistar KOI at 6.9, despite being priced a third as likely as Team Liquid to reach the bracket at all.

Team Secret Whales is the mirror image at 3.5 percent, by some distance the lowest on the board: half of Movistar KOI's 6.9 on a qualification price three and a half points higher, and half of LOS's 6.8 on one more than six times higher. Someone is buying that contract to reach the quarterfinals and nobody is buying it to go further, which is exactly the shape a single large Swiss-stage position leaves behind. If you want to convert any of these to American or decimal prices, the conversion tools do it.

How we would read the Worlds 2026 knockout stage odds

Three things here hold up. Two exchanges with no shared order flow are 4.35 points apart on an 800-point total and within 6.5 points on every one of sixteen teams, which is as good a consistency check as this tournament offers. The conditional column is coherent and ordered sensibly. And the regional split, 3.33 slots to Korea and 2.39 to China, is a statement you can hold the board to in nine days.

Two things do not. The 4.35-point deficit is a mid-point artefact rather than an edge, and anyone reading it as an edge has not priced the 53.30 points of two-way width sitting on top of it. And the daily sum's 112-point round trip between 19 and 22 October tells you plainly how much of the movement on a 12,000-dollar board is information: not much.

Our own calls are logged on the picks page and the method is on the methodology page. Treat everything above as one input.

Disclosure. The Polymarket link below is a referral link and RiftOdds may earn a commission if you sign up through it. It does not change the prices you see. Nothing here is betting advice. 18+, please gamble responsibly.

Related reading

• Worlds 2026 Swiss stage odds: who makes quarterfinals
• Worlds 2026 grand finals odds: 16 teams, 2 slots
• Worlds 2026 winner odds: every team priced
• Worlds 2026 format explained: the Swiss stage maths
• Worlds 2026 qualified teams: the full sixteen
• No-vig calculator: strip the margin out of any board

Frequently asked questions

What are the Worlds 2026 knockout stage odds?

Gen.G lead at a 93.00 percent mid, quoted 0.910 bid against 0.950 offered, then Hanwha Life Esports at 87.50, T1 at 86.50 and Bilibili Gaming at 86.00, read from Polymarket at 16:10 UTC on 22 October 2026. The sixteen live contracts sum to 795.65 percent against a structural 800, so Gen.G's no-vig figure is 93.51 percent.

Why should the knockout board add up to 800 percent?

Because exactly eight of the sixteen Swiss teams reach the quarterfinals, and each contract pays one dollar if its team is one of them. Eight guaranteed winners at 100 percent each is 800. Polymarket's board sums to 795.65 and Kalshi's to 800.00, so both are close, and Polymarket's is the only board at this tournament sitting below its own ceiling rather than above it.

Is a board summing to less than 800 percent an arbitrage?

No. The 795.65 figure is a sum of quote midpoints, and you cannot trade a midpoint. Buying all sixteen contracts at the offer costs 822.30 to collect 800, and selling all sixteen at the bid raises 769.00 against an 800 liability. Both directions lose; the 53.30 points between them is the board's real cost.

How many teams advance from the Worlds 2026 Swiss stage?

Eight of sixteen. Three match wins advances a team and three losses eliminates it, over a maximum of five rounds, so the eight qualifiers arrive as two teams at 3-0, three at 3-1 and three at 3-2. Matches that decide advancement or elimination are best-of-three and the rest are best-of-one.

Which Round 1 match is closest on the market?

G2 Esports against Dplus KIA, where the knockout prices are 61.00 and 66.50 percent, a 5.5-point gap. Team Secret Whales against LYON is next at 23.00 and 32.00. The other six openers are 26 points apart or more, with LOS against T1 the widest at 3.65 against 86.50.

Do Polymarket and Kalshi disagree on who reaches the knockouts?

Barely. No team is more than 6.5 points apart across the two books. LYON is the biggest split, 32.00 on Polymarket against 38.50 on Kalshi, then Gen.G at 93.00 against 87.00. Kalshi carries 54,098 dollars of volume on this question against Polymarket's 12,208, which reverses the title board where Polymarket has 2.28 million.

When does the Worlds 2026 knockout stage start?

3 November 2026, at the Credit Union of Texas Event Center in Allen, Texas, where the Swiss stage runs 23 to 31 October. The quarterfinals and semifinals are best-of-five and run to 8 November; the grand final is 14 November at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York.

Sources. All prices, spreads, volumes and resting liquidity are best bid, best offer, book mids and traded volume read at 16:10 UTC on 22 October 2026 and will have moved since: Polymarket's team to reach knockout stage, winner, team to make grand finals and winning region boards via the Gamma API, with daily price history from the CLOB prices-history endpoint at 1,440-minute fidelity back to the board's opening on 8 October 2026. The Kalshi figures are its KXLOLQUALIFIERS-26WORLDSQF quarterfinalists board and KXLOL-WORLDS26 champion board, read from the same public endpoint; Kalshi's series index carries no other Worlds 2026 events. Stage dates, venues, the five-round Swiss rules and the qualified field come from Riot's LoL Esports, which is also the market's own resolution source, and the 2026 World Championship record. The 18 October Round 1 draw is as reported by Insider Gaming. No-vig conversions, board sums, two-way widths, the spread column, the daily sum series, the regional slot counts and the conditional columns are our own calculations. 18+, please gamble responsibly.