LoL Worlds 2026 Quarterfinals Odds: 4 Seats Left

Most Worlds coverage will tell you who needs to win tonight. It will not tell you that the same team carries two different prices on the same exchange, that the two together imply a probability for a series nobody has drawn yet, or that one best-of-three has absorbed more money than every Worlds 2026 quarterfinals odds market put together. We read all four live match boards and all five tournament props off Polymarket's public Gamma API at 16:26 UTC on 29 October, took best bid and offer on every contract rather than trusting the midpoint, and checked each price against the published Swiss-stage records.

The short version: this is the best-priced complex on the tournament, the money has moved from the season-long props to the individual series, and the one market that looks badly wrong is the one that is right.

If you want the pre-tournament version of this board, with all sixteen teams and an 800-percent target, that is in Worlds 2026 knockout stage odds, and the format maths behind the Swiss rounds is in Worlds 2026 format explained.

Where the Worlds 2026 quarterfinals field actually stands

Eight of the sixteen Swiss-stage teams reach the quarterfinals, which begin on 3 November in Allen, Texas. Three wins qualifies, three losses eliminates, and round four runs across 29 and 30 October with the final round on 31 October.

Team	Region	Record	Status	Quarterfinal price
Gen.G	LCK	3-0	Qualified	closed at 100
Dplus KIA	LCK	3-0	Qualified	closed at 100
T1	LCK	3-1	Qualified	closed at 100
Invictus Gaming	LPL	3-1	Qualified	closed at 100
Bilibili Gaming	LPL	2-1	Win and in	91.00
Top Esports	LPL	2-1	Win and in	64.50
Hanwha Life Esports	LCK	1-2	Lose and out	62.50
LYON	LCS	2-2	Round five	54.00
Team Liquid	LCS	1-2	Lose and out	37.45
Karmine Corp	LEC	1-2	Lose and out	36.00
Movistar KOI	LEC	2-2	Round five	35.50
G2 Esports	LEC	1-2	Lose and out	13.00
CTBC Flying Oyster	LCP	1-2	Lose and out	5.85
LOS	CBLOL	1-2	Lose and out	5.85

T1 swept Movistar KOI 2-0 and Invictus Gaming beat LYON 2-1 on 28 October, which is why two contracts closed at 100 and two teams dropped to 2-2. Movistar KOI and LYON are the only teams whose quoted price is already a single-series probability: they sit at 2-2 with nothing to do until 31 October, so their 35.50 and 54.00 are pure round-five numbers.

The four-seat test: ten contracts, 405.65 percent

This board has a hard arithmetic constraint, and it is the first thing to check. Eight teams qualify and four already have, so the ten live contracts must sum to exactly 400 points. Anything else is margin, mispricing, or an unpriced book.

Team	Mid	De-vigged	Spread	Volume	Resting liquidity
Bilibili Gaming	91.00	89.73	4.0	$3,431	$1,493
Top Esports	64.50	63.60	1.0	$1,770	$755
Hanwha Life Esports	62.50	61.63	3.0	$4,387	$373
LYON	54.00	53.25	22.0	$4,964	$455
Team Liquid	37.45	36.93	4.9	$2,898	$374
Karmine Corp	36.00	35.50	8.0	$2,314	$889
Movistar KOI	35.50	35.01	5.0	$1,853	$933
G2 Esports	13.00	12.82	4.0	$4,203	$428
CTBC Flying Oyster	5.85	5.77	5.7	$4,687	$524
LOS	5.85	5.77	3.7	$3,417	$1,906
All ten	405.65	400.00		$33,924	$8,114

405.65 against 400 is a 5.65-point overround, or 1.41 percent. The Worlds 2026 title board's live contracts sum to 105.00 percent for one winner — a 5-point overround on a single seat — so per seat this board is roughly four times tighter than the market it feeds.

It is not free money either way. Buying all ten at the offer costs 436.30 dollars to collect 400, a 36.30-dollar loss; selling all ten at the bid raises 375.00 against a 400-dollar liability. The overround lives inside a 61.30-point gap between what the board costs and what it pays, which is why a sum-of-mids test measures quoting quality rather than arbitrage.

One number does not belong: LYON's 22-point spread, 43.00 bid against 65.00 offered, where every other contract is inside nine points. LYON has the board's second-highest volume and its loosest quote, which is what happens when a team's situation changes faster than its market makers do; Top Esports is quoted a single point wide. To strip a margin like this out yourself, our no-vig calculator does it for any board.

The match boards hold 21 times what the props do

Here is the thing nobody writing about Worlds 2026 quarterfinals odds seems to have noticed: the season-long props are not where this tournament is traded.

Board	Total volume	Resting liquidity	Match winner	Handicap	Game 1
Karmine Corp v CTBC Flying Oyster	$545,619	$1,380,286	$342,790	$122,540	$19,266
Top Esports v Bilibili Gaming	$287,706	$1,190,928	$183,593	$48,224	$4,429
Hanwha Life v G2 Esports	$233,391	$544,834	$172,995	$49,373	$3,298
Team Liquid v LOS	$117,054	$285,141	$26,577	$89,007	$173
Four series	$1,183,770	$3,401,189	$725,955	$309,144	$27,166
Every knockout-shaped prop combined	$165,808	—	—	—	—

The four series have taken 1,183,770 dollars against 54,563 on the whole team-to-reach-knockouts board — 21.7 times as much. Karmine Corp against CTBC Flying Oyster alone holds 545,619, and its match-winner contract 342,790, which is 6.3 times the entire prop board. Against all five knockout-shaped props together the four series still win 7.1 to one.

That governs how you read every number here. When a thin market and a deep market disagree, listen to the deep one — and on this tournament the deep market is the individual best-of-three. The props are useful precisely because they can be checked against it.

Two prices for one team, and what dividing them says

Every team in a round-four series is priced twice: once to win tonight, once to reach the quarterfinals. The relationship between them is exact. A 1-2 team that wins goes to 2-2 and must win again on 31 October, so its quarterfinal price is the product of two series probabilities — divide one by the other and you recover the market's view of a round-five series whose opponent has not been drawn.

Team	Round 4 price	Quarterfinal price	Implied round-five price	Path
Hanwha Life Esports	78.50	62.50	79.62	win twice
Team Liquid	79.50	37.45	47.11	win twice
Karmine Corp	81.50	36.00	44.17	win twice
G2 Esports	21.50	13.00	60.47	win twice
CTBC Flying Oyster	18.50	5.85	31.62	win twice
LOS	20.50	5.85	28.54	win twice
Bilibili Gaming	75.50	91.00	63.27	win once, or survive
Top Esports	24.50	64.50	52.98	win once, or survive
LYON	—	54.00	54.00 (direct)	already 2-2
Movistar KOI	—	35.50	35.50 (direct)	already 2-2

Bilibili Gaming and Top Esports are the 2-1 teams, so a win qualifies them outright and a loss only drops them to 2-2. Their quarterfinal price is the win probability plus the loss probability times a round-five survival, which inverts to 63.27 and 52.98.

Two readings fall out of that column. G2's implied round-five number is 60.47 percent — a G2 side that beats Hanwha Life would be a clear favourite next time out, and its 13.00 quarterfinal price is the 21.50 in front of it, not pessimism about the round after. And Karmine Corp's 44.17 sits well above Movistar KOI's directly quoted 35.50 though both would be LEC sides at 2-2, so the market is not treating the six round-five places as interchangeable.

The caveat: this assumes a team's two series are priced independently, and Hanwha Life's 79.62 strains it. That is very high for a best-of-three against an unknown opponent, and the likelier reading is that the 62.50 prop has not caught up with the 78.50 match board.

The handicap is the market the money actually trades

Each series carries a minus 1.5 game handicap, which in a best-of-three pays only on a 2-0 sweep, plus a games total at 2.5, which resolves Over if the series reaches a third game. Both follow mechanically from a single per-game win probability, which makes the board checkable against itself.

Series	Game price	2-0 implied	Handicap quoted	Series implied	Match quoted	3 games implied	Over quoted
KC v CFO	73.50	54.02	57.50	82.65	81.50	38.95	37.50
BLG v TES	69.50	48.30	48.50	77.77	75.50	42.40	40.50
HLE v G2	72.50	52.56	52.50	81.47	78.50	39.88	41.50
TL v LOS	72.00	51.84	53.50	80.87	79.50	40.32	38.50

Two of the four handicaps are effectively exact. Bilibili Gaming's minus 1.5 is quoted 48.50 against a game-implied 48.30, and Hanwha Life's 52.50 against 52.56 — six hundredths of a point apart. That is a market pricing its own derivative correctly.

The outlier is Karmine Corp's handicap at 57.50 against a 54.02 implied, 3.48 points rich. And the match-winner price sits below the game-implied series price in all four cases, by 1.15, 2.27, 2.97 and 1.37 points. A one-sided gap repeated across four independent boards says which market to trust rather than offering an edge in either: the game-winner contracts carry 27,166 dollars between them against 725,955 on the match winners, so the thin side is the one that is wrong.

Then there is where the money went. On Team Liquid against LOS the handicap has taken 89,007 dollars against 26,577 on the match winner — the derivative out-trades its own underlying 3.35 to one, and the game-one contract 514 to one. Across the four series the handicap holds 309,144 dollars against 27,166 on individual games. Traders here want the sweep, not the series.

Games total, kill totals, and 60 contracts nobody has touched

Only two of the four series carry anything beyond winner, handicap and games total: Karmine Corp against CTBC Flying Oyster and Top Esports against Bilibili Gaming each list kill totals and duration lines, while Hanwha Life against G2 and Team Liquid against LOS list none.

Market	Mid	Bid	Ask	Volume
KC v CFO, game 1 kills over 27.5	40.50	40.00	41.00	$8,725
KC v CFO, game 2 kills over 24.5	64.50	64.00	65.00	$7,354
TES v BLG, game 1 kills over 27.5	52.50	52.00	53.00	$20,345
TES v BLG, game 2 kills over 27.5	55.50	55.00	56.00	$13,241
KC v CFO, game 3 duration over 31:30	50.00	21.00	79.00	$6

The kill lines are internally consistent — a lower line always carries a higher Over price, on both series and in both games — and 27.5 is the line with money on it. The gap between the series is the interesting part: the same 27.5 line is 40.50 for Karmine Corp against CTBC Flying Oyster and 52.50 for Top Esports against Bilibili Gaming, a 12-point view that the LPL series will be bloodier. At 20,345 dollars it is the best-funded opinion on any side market here.

Everything else is noise wearing a price. The duration lines are 24 to 58 points wide on single-digit volume, and the novelty props — Baron, dragon, inhibitor, quadra-kill and pentakill, three games each across four series — are 60 contracts that have taken 273 dollars between them. Fifty-six have never traded, and 36 are quoted at exactly 50.00 against a one-cent bid and a 99-cent offer. A 50.00 midpoint inside a 98-point spread is not a forecast; it is a market maker's default, the same failure we found across the Worlds 2026 meta odds boards.

Why a Western quarterfinalist is 99.65 and not 90

Polymarket runs a standalone prop on whether any LEC, LCS or CBLOL team reaches the quarterfinals, quoted 99.65 percent on 16,979 dollars, bid 99.60 against 99.70 offered. Six Western teams are alive, so you can rebuild it from the board above: LYON 54.00, Team Liquid 37.45, Karmine Corp 36.00, Movistar KOI 35.50, G2 13.00, LOS 5.85. Multiply the complements and no Western team at all comes out at 9.73 percent, which makes the prop 90.27.

That is a 9.38-point gap on a market quoted ten basis points wide, and it is not an edge. It is the independence assumption failing, and the bracket is what breaks it.

Round-five field	Probability	Western teams in it	Can all Western teams miss?
Karmine Corp and G2 both win	17.52%	5 of 6	No — two Western pairings forced
Exactly one of them wins	67.95%	4 of 6	No — one Western pairing forced
Neither wins	14.52%	3 of 6	Only on an all-cross draw

Round five is three best-of-threes between the six teams who finish 2-2, and the winners take the last three seats. Movistar KOI and LYON are already in that field, and Team Liquid plays LOS — both Western — so a third Western team has a 2-2 place guaranteed before a game is played. Karmine Corp and G2 can add a fourth and fifth.

With four or more Western teams among six, at least one round-five series must be Western against Western and a Western quarterfinalist becomes certain — 85.47 percent of outcomes, settled outright. Only the 14.52 percent branch where both CTBC Flying Oyster and Hanwha Life win leaves three of each, and even then the draw must pair all three across (six of the fifteen ways to split six teams into pairs, so 40 percent) and all three non-Western sides must win, which on the market's own implied round-five numbers is 13.97 percent.

Put together: 0.81 percent for no Western quarterfinalist, so 99.19 percent for at least one; a flat 50 percent for those three gives 99.27. The market's 99.65 is a little above both, the right side of the error given that the draw avoids rematches and we have ignored it. A naive multiplication was 9 points out; the structural answer is within half a point. Worlds 2026 winning region odds covers the title version of the question.

LCK cannot be beaten on seats, only tied

The last market asks which region sends the most teams to the quarterfinals, and it has a structural answer the board has mostly found.

Region	Seats locked	Live contenders	Ceiling	Quoted
LCK	3	Hanwha Life (62.50)	4	81.50
LPL	1	Bilibili Gaming, Top Esports	3	0.05
LEC	0	G2, Movistar KOI, Karmine Corp	3	0.05
LCS	0	LYON, Team Liquid	2	closed at 0
LCP	0	CTBC Flying Oyster	1	closed at 0
CBLOL	0	LOS	1	closed at 0
Tie	—	—	—	12.20

Gen.G, Dplus KIA and T1 are through, so the LCK has a floor of three. Anyone's Legend went out at 0-3, capping the LPL at three; Cloud9 went out in the play-in, capping the LCS at two. No region can finish above three and the LCK is already there, so the LCK cannot be beaten — the only live question is whether it is tied. The market has the LPL and LEC at five basis points each, which is the correct answer to a question that looks wrong.

A tie needs Hanwha Life to miss, at 37.50 percent, and then either both Bilibili Gaming and Top Esports to qualify, at 55.50, or all three LEC sides to get through, at about 1.66. Those two cannot both happen — nine seats do not fit in eight — so the implied tie is roughly 21.44 percent against a 12.20 quoted midpoint. The offer is 18.20, still below our number, but the contract is 12 points wide on 2,368 dollars and the live board sums to 93.80 rather than 100. Buying the LCK and the tie together at the offer costs 101.20 to collect a certain 100, so the missing 6.20 points are spread, not value.

How we would read the Worlds 2026 quarterfinals odds

Start from the four-seat constraint: 405.65 against 400 is the cleanest number on this tournament, and it earns the board the benefit of the doubt elsewhere. Then let the deep markets lead the shallow ones — 1.18 million dollars sits on four series against 54,563 on the prop that depends on them, so when they disagree the series is the forecast and the prop is the lag. Hanwha Life's 79.62 implied round-five price is the clearest instance of that lag today.

Treat the handicap as the real market and the game-winner contracts as the derived one, which inverts how they are usually presented. Two of the four handicaps match their own game prices to within a fifth of a point; the game contracts, holding 4 percent of the money, are the ones drifting. And ignore the 60 novelty props — a 50.00 quote between a one-cent bid and a 99-cent offer carries no information at all.

The closing number keeps it in proportion. Those six Western teams are 99.65 percent to put someone in the quarterfinals and, on the title board, 3.00 percent combined to win the tournament. Reaching the last eight and threatening it are different questions, priced two orders of magnitude apart. Live prices for all of these boards sit on our Worlds 2026 hub.

RiftOdds earns a commission if you open a Polymarket account through our link. It costs you nothing and never changes the numbers above.

Related reading

• Worlds 2026 knockout stage odds: all 16 priced
• Worlds 2026 Swiss stage odds: who makes quarterfinals
• Worlds 2026 winner odds: every team priced
• Worlds 2026 format explained: the Swiss stage maths
• Worlds 2026 meta odds: picks, bans and viewers
• How to use Polymarket: bids, offers and spreads

Frequently asked questions

What are the Worlds 2026 quarterfinals odds right now?

Gen.G, Dplus KIA, T1 and Invictus Gaming are through and closed at 100. For the last four seats, read at 16:26 UTC on 29 October 2026: Bilibili Gaming 91.00, Top Esports 64.50, Hanwha Life 62.50, LYON 54.00, Team Liquid 37.45, Karmine Corp 36.00, Movistar KOI 35.50, G2 Esports 13.00, CTBC Flying Oyster and LOS 5.85 each.

When do the Worlds 2026 quarterfinals start?

3 November 2026 at the Credit Union of Texas Event Center in Allen, Texas, with semifinals to 8 November at the same venue and the final on 14 November at Barclays Center in Brooklyn. The Swiss stage ends with its fifth round on 31 October.

Why do the ten live contracts add up to more than 100 percent?

They are not alternatives — four of the ten qualify, so the target is 400 points, not 100. The board sums to 405.65, a 5.65-point overround or 1.41 percent. That is tight: the Worlds title board carries a 5-point overround on a single seat.

Can you make money on the 5.65-point overround?

No. Buying all ten at the offer costs 436.30 dollars to collect 400; selling all ten at the bid raises 375.00 against a 400-dollar liability. Both sides lose. The overround measures quoting quality, not a tradeable edge.

What does the game handicap mean in a Worlds best-of-three?

A minus 1.5 handicap pays the favourite only if it wins two more games than its opponent, which in a best-of-three means a 2-0 sweep. It is therefore the square of the per-game win probability, and on two of the four live series the quoted handicap matches that to within a fifth of a point.

Will a Western team reach the Worlds 2026 quarterfinals?

The market says 99.65 percent and the bracket gives us 99.19 to 99.27. Multiplying the six Western teams' prices gives only 90.27, but Movistar KOI, LYON and the Team Liquid versus LOS winner are all Western and all have guaranteed round-five places, so four or more Western teams among six force a Western-versus-Western series.

Which region will send the most teams to the Worlds 2026 quarterfinals?

The LCK, and it cannot be beaten. Gen.G, Dplus KIA and T1 give it a floor of three, Anyone's Legend's exit caps the LPL at three, and no other region can exceed two. The only live question is a tie, quoted 12.20 against our implied 21.44.

Sources. All prices, spreads, volumes and resting liquidity are best bid, best offer, book midpoints and traded volume read from Polymarket's public Gamma API at 16:26 UTC on 29 October 2026, and will have moved since. The boards are the team to reach the knockout stage market, the Western team prop, the region with the most knockout teams market, the Worlds 2026 winner board and the four round-four match boards; resolution rules, including the Western-team definition and the minus 1.5 handicap settling on a two-game margin, are quoted from their own descriptions. The field, qualifying leagues, Swiss rules, the 3 November quarterfinal date and the Allen and Brooklyn venues come from Riot's LoL Esports and the 2026 World Championship record; the records, round-four schedule and 28 October results from ESTNN. De-vigged figures, board sums, the implied round-five column, the handicap and games-total checks, the Western branch analysis and the implied tie are our own calculations. 18+, please gamble responsibly.